Just a note on a blog we’ve discussed before. A perceptive analysis of our civilization’s current status in tapping its finite oil reservoir has been posted on Our Finite World. It is called World Oil Production at 3/31/2014–Where Are We Headed?.
As we have pointed out before, Our Finite World has many carefully crafted analyses on the usage of our petroleum reserves; this one is a must-read if you are interested in the situation. Personally, I think of it as a needed update to LastTechAge’s Patterns in World Oil Production.
You can see the issue in her first graph (Figure 1) on World crude production. This is an increasing curve but the rate of rise drops off and the production curve is starting to flatten out, though not yet at a peak. She uses linear graphs which are more intuitive than the LTA preferred semilog ones. Her points are clear.
Read it then think – how good are projections of future prosperity if viewed under the shadow of outrageously expensive oil?
George Bush filled up our Strategic Oil Reserve in the early 2000’s when oil was about $35/US-barrel. Today it is in the neighborhood of $100/US-barrel (factor of nearly 3 over the decade). Multiply this by only 2 for the coming decade then make a do-it-yourself projection as to how we will be living.
Charles J. Armentrout, Ann Arbor
2014 July 23
Listed under Natural Resources … thread Natural resources > Oil
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