World Oil Production – Our Finite World

Just a note on a blog we’ve discussed before.   A perceptive analysis of our civilization’s current status in tapping its finite oil reservoir has been posted on Our Finite World.  It is called World Oil Production at 3/31/2014–Where Are We Headed?.

As we have pointed out before, Our Finite World has many carefully crafted analyses on the usage of our petroleum reserves; this one is a must-read if you are interested in the situation.   Personally, I think of it as a needed update to LastTechAge’s  Patterns in World Oil Production.

OFW WorldOilProduction 2014-0331Gail Tverberg discusses production from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, Iraq, US, and Canada – a meaningful list.  It includes a very perceptive analysis of the price implications.

You can see the issue in her first graph (Figure 1) on World crude production. This is an increasing curve but the rate of rise drops off and the production curve is starting to flatten out, though not yet at a peak.  She uses linear graphs which are more intuitive than the LTA preferred semilog ones.  Her points are clear.

click for LastTechAge discussions about oil reserves

Read it then think – how good are projections of future prosperity if viewed under the shadow of outrageously expensive oil?

George Bush filled up our Strategic Oil Reserve in the early 2000’s when oil was about $35/US-barrel.  Today it is in the neighborhood of $100/US-barrel (factor of nearly 3 over the decade).  Multiply this by only 2 for the coming decade then make a do-it-yourself projection as to how we will be living.

……………………………….

Charles J. Armentrout, Ann Arbor
2014 July 23
Listed under Natural Resources  … thread   Natural resources > Oil
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About LastTechAge

I am a physicist with years of work in fusion labs, industry labs, and teaching (physics and math). I have watched the tech scene, watched societal trends and am alarmed. My interest is to help us all improve or maintain that which we worked so hard to achieve.
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2 Responses to World Oil Production – Our Finite World

  1. We are dirtying OUR soil and waterways – and shipping the oil overseas – to fulfill the greed of oil companies and their lobbyists and people in Congress. Not a good tradeoff.

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    • LastTechAge says:

      Alicia
      “Not a good tradeoff.”

      Right on! We transport shale oil products from the Bakken fields and elsewhere via trains that use tank cars not even close to safe. These oils are lighter and more dangerous than the heavy petroleum pumped from wells. The cars explode, lives are lost, and the owners complain that they cannot get to shipping docks fast enough. The Keystone pipeline opened in 2010 and went to heartland America. KXL wants to put more risky pipe line through the fragile High Plains aquifer and we must believe that there will be no leakage. KXL is to get the oil to the Gulf cost ports. I agree, Not good.

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