LastTechAge
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General ———-
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- This, The Final Technical Society This is Earth’s final technical society. Take care of it!
- Light Switch or Thermostat? Too many things are present as a binary choice, life has in between choices that make existence tolerable.
- Obama, Compromise and Drew Westen Emory University’s Drew Westen asks – has Obama compromised away our hope?
- Police, Martial Law and New Directions Pepper gas on peaceful protesters. We are guided toward … where?
- Knights to Battleships – Ardent Support for the Unreliable History is littered with countries that wasted their resources building huge unreliable/unworkable weapon systems. Part 3, ABM posts.
- How to Peel a Mango Quickly with little mess slip the pit out of any stone fruit, and slide fruit from its peel – works with peaches, plums, even mangoes.
- Physics – Science or Ideology? NY Times essay discusses this question. We discuss physics frauds and ideologues (who know their model is Truth). Also discussed – math is hard, and epicycles
General > Time Path
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- Ideologies Can’t Work Chaos + lack of time machines mean no ideology can work out.
- Economics Can Never Be Right So says Rosenberg & Curtain NYT. We agree for different reasons. Economics is about models; without a time machine, Economists can never be scientists.
- Economics Can Never Be Right Pt-2 Letters to NYT argue yes/no. But Econ is like battlefield management, a different type of modeling from that done in science fields.
- Fortunetelling Killed By Time’s Arrow Psychic powers of foretelling the future are blocked by the structure of timeflow.
- Time Paths – the flow of time Timepath Ontology 1 The structure of the Future, Now, Past.
- Time Paths – Exploring the past Timepath Ontology 2 Causality in the past: A classic boundary value problem with incomplete and fuzzy boundaries.
- Time Paths – Probability Begins It Timepath Ontology 3 The cloud of future probabilities use Bayesian hooks to smoothly meld into Reality during Now.
- Of Time and Physics Timepath Ontology 4 General reader: non-math discussion of classical physics, Relativity, and Quantum Mechanics – how they work together and with Timepaths
Economy > Inequality
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- Graph summary – Trends correlating with Saez-Piketty Inequality data – Page
- Income Inequality – Zero Sum Game The richest few transfer income from those who are poorer
- Poor Rich – Income Inequality 2 Living in the top 2% of all earners is really tough! Or is it?
- The Elite Deserve What They Get- Income Inequality 3 The top incomes are our best & brightest. They make the jobs and deserve everything. Or is any of that true?
- Overstated Gains – Income Inequality 4 Top ultras almost certainly lift nearby statistics
- Elites or Ultras – Income Inequality 5 News coverage focuses on top 1% – it should go higher.
- Tom Friedman and the End of US Manufacturing Strategy to turn off American prosperity and hope, just stop making things.
- Records of Inequality -Footprints in the sand 1 Inequality jumped 1980-81, why?
- The American Income Pump matters to us The pump started up in 1980-81, results are not good
- The Conard Justification – Income Inequality 6 New book justifies takeover by economic ultras
- Income Inequality and Fusion Energy Research Joseph Stiglitz and our data show America’s move to high inequality is correlated to its retreat from technical innovation.
- Greg Mankiw and the real Middle Class Mankiw’s article distorts tax fairness and equitability
- Inequality, Luddites + Paul Krugman Stunning Krugman essay shows that the meaning of inequality has changed. Now what to do?
- Minimum Wage, Poverty-Level and Unemployment MW and Unemployment support are under attack in Washington – all are symptoms of inexorable rise in US inequality
- David Brooks and The Inequality Problem problem Brooks advocates fixing society problems without touching root cause inequality. We deconstruct+outline Saez Piketty background
- Piketty Discovers America or v v We review Capital in the 21st Century & what it implies
- Piketty Under Attack Capital in the 21st Century generated much heat and fuss. Rightist have two tactics: Paint Piketty as Communist, or show book has structural errors
- Business Startups and Inequality There is a relationship between the number of business startups each year and Saez-Piketty Inequality. Why?
- Saving Production Rules California demands all egg produces follow California production laws in order to sell there. Why can’t we “Right Tariff” all goods sold in America? Follow up to Can we Stop Using Slave Labor.
- Gini Index shows Saez Piketty Inequality The flawed Gini index displays postive correlation to Saez-Piketty Inequality.
- TPP to Piketty – The Slow War The Trans Pacific Partnership is sold as an enlightened free trade agreement. Maybe the biggest shot yet in the American Slow War toward income inequality?
- Obama Overtime and Saez-Piketty A proposed new overtime rule is to address inequality for the Middle Class. Will it really?
- Graph summary – Trends correlating with Saez-Piketty Inequality data – Page
Economy > Monetary Policy
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- Does a Gold Standard Make Sense? Could we use gold to link currency values and inflation?
- Gold or Collectable Standard? Followup to NYT’s Davidoff. Denominate with a collectable?
- Light Switch or Thermostat? Polarize an issue or use a nuanced balance? The choice might generate civil problems
- When Yen Parity? A bit of fun suggests that this will happen before 2020
- Sudden Jumps, Surging Yen Toyota blame woes on ‘surge’ in yen value. Ain’t no surge, Toyota.
Economy > Trade Policy
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- Free Trade Is Bad For U.S. Free Trade Agreements miss key issue, are unfair.
- Tom Friedman and the End of US Manufacturing Strategy to turn off American prosperity and hope, just stop making things.
- Outsourcing and Offshoring Help The Pump Krugman ID’s part of the 30 yr old mechanism
- Offshoring and Offshoring are Good – David Brooks Brooks’ over-the-right-edge essay promotes these things. Next day, it disappeared from the New York Times records
- Offshoring – We are all Brain Surgeons now Alan Blinder says it all in debate with Jeff Faux
- Can We Stop Using Slave Labor? Moving manufacturing to where workers are nearly slaves is mostly okay if we don’t see it. But it drives the increase in income disparity.
- Saving Production Rules California demands all egg produces follow California production laws in order to sell there. Why can’t we “Right Tariff” all goods sold in America? Follow up to Can we Stop Using Slave Labor.
Education ———-
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- The Tuition Addition Education debt soars with rising tuition & correlated Piketty inequality, causing loss of opportunity in America
- Are Tuition Costs Exaggerated? NYT’s Leonhardt argues college tuition is actually dropping, review of the data says he is not right
Natural Resources ———-
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- Using Finite Resource (Page) Algebra behind resource utilization
- Is Copper Entering Crisis Mode? Australian researchers collected data, ran model projecting production growth. Result is the peak of copper production around 2050, no matter how hard we try to get more. The end of inexpensive copper. (Cheap copper ended years ago!)
Natural Resources > Arctic Oil
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- ANWR and the Lies of Large Numbers Oil lies in the Alaskan Natural Wilderness Reserve?
- Arctic Offshore Oil–is it worth it? Why drill in the Beaufort Sea area? Tests start 2013
Natural Resources > Global Warming
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- People Are Changing The World Climate Two good sites where climate change is continually discussed, despite vocal Denialist protests. LTA supports the 97% of climate scientists who accept the fact of human driven climate change.
- Climate Shift Denialists 1-Business and Politics – Why do some executives and politicians deny the fact that climate is changing?
- Climate Shift Denialists 2-Religeous – Why do some religious leaders deny the fact that climate is changing?
- If I explain, they will accept. Uh, umm – People will not change their minds due to just facts.
- World Climate Is Changing – It is happening right now. We discuss temperature change, sea level rise, and storm violence increases, then examine where and some of the why reasons.
Natural Resources > Keystone XL
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- Keystone XL – The Balance Sheet XL upgrade does not balance US gain, losses, wealth
- Pipeline Spills and Keystone XL XL to pass through Ogallala aquifer, with spills not uncommon
- Keystone XL and the Quality Ethic Whistle blower Mike Klink’s horrific testimony
- Keystone XL is about Exports XL path to Gulf no accident. Oil Industry currently exports 1/2 what is produced
- XL is not about Climate Change, Joe Nocera Columnist attacks climate change to support XL
- Reject XL – it’s about US ecology not climate change State Dept report says XL has negligible effect on world climate change
- Water, Groundwater and XL If opposing XL is “deranged,” so is fresh water. Stop XL
- KXL threatens US environment KXL is at Senate vote crisis. We repeat that this threatens midwest water, offers no long term benefits to US population. KXL does not threaten world climate, and the US cannot use it as a tool to influence Canadian environmental destruction.
- Obama Decides On Keystone XL Finally, 2015 Nov 06, President Obama decided to reject TransCanada’s KXL application for extension to its current pipeline.
Natural Resources > Oil
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- Peak Oil – Predictive Model World production is peaking. Model for exponential growth
- Saudi Peak Oil Flurry of recent actions indicate Saudi concern
- Lynch Poo-Poos Peak Oil Professional critic discounts limits to Saudi oil growth
- Has Peak Oil Happened? R.A. Kerr reports on the non-OPEC situation
- Are Strategic Petroleum Reserves Obsolete? The SPR is an emergency resource do not drain.
- Drain America First Why should Obama drain US security reserves?
- Footprints in the sand 2 – US Oil production By the late 1930s, oil industry knew the oil reservoir had begun its depletion curve – or could have, if it had faced reality
- US Petroleum Exports are Huge Why high prices? EIA data – US exports 51% of production
- Petroleum exports skyrocket while oil prices rise This update on US Exports Are Huge gives better details on the three export jumps that the U.S. has experienced.
- Patterns in World Oil Production Data from 7 major oil fields show end of the age of cheap oil. This is one of our key studies of oil reserves.
- Hands Off The SPR Can Obama withstand cries for releases from our emergency supply?
- Do You Follow Our Finite World ? Gail Tverberg’s site on the economic relationship to the end of easy oil.
- World Oil Production – Our FiniteWorld Gail Tverberg posts excellent analysis of 2014 status of world oil resources and reviews potential of a number of oil fields.
- Should oil trains get limited liability? Warren Buffett argues for an oil train Price-Anderson law to limit financial liability when one of his trains explode. Not justified!
Natural Resources > Pollution
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- Mercury, Power Plants, poison Regulation being considered to stop methyl mercury emission
- EPA Limits Mercury in the Environment Power plant emissions cut to 1/10th of current values
- The Mercury Connection – Fluorescent vs Incandescent CFL much worse than incandescents
Politics > 2016 Election
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- Piketty and the U.S. Presidential Race Piketty published very positive Opinion piece in The Guardian about how Bernie Sanders might affect inequality.
- Quench the Bern ? … Yet the fire rages Bernie lost the primary but the fury over inequality in the U.S. burns ferociously.
Politics > President Donald Trump
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- Trump invites Brit Theresa May over for tea Prime Minister May will be the first to visit the Trump White House; hope she comes well armored.
- President Trump, Triumph of Chaos The Trump election is the outcome of an engineered shift in American political stability center, a chaos shift in the stability of society.
- Donald Trump is Man-child – Maybe Arguments that Donald Trump acts like a child is probably unfair to children
- Climate Shift Denialists 1 – Business and Politics – Climate Change Why do some executives and politicians deny the fact that climate is changing?
[Back to top]
Technology ———-
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- Dreams – Deferred or Lost? The strangulation of technical programs indicates a more general crisis in American society
- Energy Independence – Can Exploitation Bring Success? (2012) Harold Hamm and Mitt Romney think the only way to do this is to eliminate driving
- Fusion Energy – Kill the beast Fusion rose abruptly in the 70s along with support, budgets dropped steeply staring in 83, causing massive slowdown in development. See for Fusion Petition
- Income Inequality and Fusion Energy Research Joseph Stiglitz and our data show America’s move to high inequality is correlated to its retreat from technical innovation.
- Without action we lose our energy future (2012) Romney wants to shut off fusion energy support and all R&D support while relieving the ultra rich of their burdensome tax load
- How and When Should Science Be Supported? We mustn’t wait until we can no longer afford technical solutions
Technology > Anti-Ballistic Missiles
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- ABM: Under The Dome – Safeguard (1) 1st US Anti Ballistic Missile worked but was scary
- ABM: Under The Dome – Today (2) U.S. ABM strategy is complicated and unrealiable
- Knights to Battgleships – Ardent Support for the Unreliable (3) History is littered with countries that wasted their resources building huge unreliable/unworkable weapon systems.
- ABM: Under The Dome – K2B (4) Some anti missile systems seem to work but our multi billions are being wasted on at least one multi decade boondoggle.
- ABM Test Finally Succeeded, Maybe New GBI test sort-of worked, used known-flawed kill vehicle. Does this mean something?
Technology > Fission
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- Nuclear Decisions-1 Fukushima Disaster Time to decide whether to restart reactor builds
- Nuclear Decisions-2 The LOCA Issue Loss of coolant accidents can cause core melt-down.
- Nuclear Decisions-3 Spent Fuel Should we solve the used fuel issue before new builds?
- Nuclear Decisions-4 What does it mean? Safty, waste, U resources, dispose/eliminate
- Is there enough uranium ore to do the job? Replace nuclear by oil/coal? The once-through rule
- Japanese Energy Decision Time Can Japan shut of reactors without destroying economy?
Technology > Fusion-Inertial Confinement / Inertial Fusion Energy
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- Has NIF been retasked? Laser fusion studies delayed, but NIF belongs to weapons community
- Biggest Laser Fails At Fusion NIF, under media spotlight, fires full power shot, misses goal-1
- When NIF went viral BBC reported an internal NIF memo, webspace exploded
- NIF shifts toward Success – 1 2013 data show local, target gain of about 1; also good evidence for enhanced heating, the first step toward an ignited plasma.
- NIF shifts toward Success – 2 Good results; final success requires work on shot geometry
- NIF shifts toward Success – 3 Shots show good improvements but is something unexpected happening?
- NIF shifts toward Success – 4 Estimates on how to reduce RT growth, and final summary of their 2013-2014 results
- KMS Fusion – an addendum A new historical study of ICF at LLNL and KMSf is the reason for our contribution discussing KMS’s unique and effective technology and its awful political record.
- NIF Notes-tents Spring-2015 NIF scientists show target supports cause implosion asymmetry.
- NIF Notes-targets Spring-2015 Reducing shell thickness produced impressive improvements.
- NIF Notes-Hohlraums Spring-2015 ICF chambers shaped like rugby balls just might save ICF’s future.
Technology > Fusion-Magnetic Fusion Energy
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- Fusion, Sea Water and Stewart Prager MFE is ready – a comment on this impassioned argument
- American Fusion – Twilight of the gods Payments to ITER closes or impedes U.S. fusion research
- Fusion Wins Reprieve House of Reps fully funds fusion. End after November
- Fusion Energy – Kill the beast Fusion rose abruptly in the 70s along with support, budgets dropped steeply staring in 83, causing massive slowdown in development. See for Fusion Petition
- Income Inequality and Fusion Energy Research Joseph Stiglitz and our data show America’s move to high inequality is correlated to its retreat from technical innovation.
- Without action we lose our energy future (2012) Romney wants to shut off fusion energy support and all R&D support while relieving the ultra rich of their burdensome tax load
- Open Letter to the OFES of the DOE 63 young scientist plea for support. Is this enough?
- MFTF-B Story – Fusion/conFusion $B research machine dedicated, scrapped. ’80s tragedy
- ITER-1 The international test facility Here is our description of the fusion test bed under construction in France and supported by many countries.
- ITER-2 Machine is being built -will it work? The divertor protects the wall and removes fusion waste. That is, it is supposed to that.
Technology > Fusion-Other
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- Stirring The Fusion Pot Eight companies dream of small and inexpensive fusion power plants.
- Fusion Paths Not Taken -1 We discuss EMC2’s Polywell fusion concept, Lockheed-Martin’s Compact Fusion Reactor, and the Dynomak configuration from Uni Wash.
- Fusion Paths Not Taken -2 We discuss General Fusion, Helion Energy, and HyperV Technology
- Fusion Paths Not Taken -3 LPPT proposes p-B11 with Dense Plasma Focus for Focus Fusion
- Fusion Paths Not Taken -4 Tri Alpha Energy proposes p-B11 with colliding beam fusion
Technology > Lighting Technology
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- Fluorescents-1: Efficiency Are CFLs always much more efficient than incandescents?
- Fluorescents-2: Lifetime Lifetimes are rated long, but may be easily shortened.
- Fluorescents-3: Not as bright as you think Intensity decays with age, lamps loose ratings.
- Fluorescents-4: Flicker and UV Old-style FLs flicker, cause headaches. UV standard CFL issue.
- Fluorescents-5: Color of Light Specified by color temperature and color rendering index.
- Fluorescents-6: Environmental Impact Mercury worse than thermometers, rare earths an issue.
- Using Fluorescents – A Compilation Summary with links to the previous 6 posts
- Update – Fluorescent Lights/China China blocked rare earth exports, CFLs prices jumped
- Paul Wheaton and CFLs Peraculurist has videos of his own excellent tests on CFLs.
Technology > Space Exploration
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- Senator Nelson ignores The 3 Product Attibutes Bill Nelson bullies NASA, ignores supply/demand rules
- LISA goes the way of all US tech Key gravity wave mission ended. Are we abandoning our future?
- Farewell to American Manned Space Operations End of shuttle, end of American man-in-space?
- In the Balance: James Webb Space Telescope The next U.S. space observatory up to congress
- Metal Resources, Asteroids and Obama The 21st C could be tough without asteroid resources
- Privatized Space – SpaceX First launch of Dragon to ISS delayed as it should be
- Web of Privatized Space 1 – Crew, Cargo In crowded field of private capsules, spaceplanes and related transport vehicles, what are they, how can they all survive, why call them ‘private?’
- Darkside of the Moon or American Society? Does it matter if we say dark side or far side? How about basalt or blue cheese?
Charles J. Armentrout – Ann Arbor
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update 2017 May 26
The Last Tech Age 